Yankees at Blue Jays
Last play · Brett Bateman grounds out, pitcher Tim Hill to first baseman Ben Rice.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
NYY 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 1 TOR
Tied through 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (33) on a fly ball to right center field. Ali Sánchez scores. (inning 10) — -44% Yankees
10Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to shortstop George Lombard Jr. Kazuma Okamoto scores.4–3
10Ben Rice homers (33) on a fly ball to right center field. Ali Sánchez scores.4–2
9Ernie Clement out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Trent Grisham. Josh Smith scores.2–2
7Blue Jays challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: José Caballero singles on a line drive to left fielder Daz Cameron. George Lombard Jr. scores. José Caballero out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Daz Cameron to catcher Alejandro Kirk to second baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Charles McAdoo. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd.2–1
5Daz Cameron doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Kazuma Okamoto scores.1–1
3Luis García Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Daz Cameron. José Caballero scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
