Royals at Blue Jays
Last play · Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nathan Lukes singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Daz Cameron scores. Brett Bateman scores. Nathan Lukes out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Isaac Collins to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Tyler Tolbert.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
KC 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 1 TOR
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Myles Straw. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 3rd. (inning 5) — -16% Royals
9Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nathan Lukes singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Daz Cameron scores. Brett Bateman scores. Nathan Lukes out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Isaac Collins to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to second baseman Tyler Tolbert.5–3
9John Rave singles on a line drive to center fielder Brett Bateman. Tyler Tolbert scores.5–1
6Carter Jensen out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brett Bateman. John Rave scores.4–1
6Kyle Isbel hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Nick Loftin scores. John Rave to 3rd. Kyle Isbel to 2nd.3–1
5Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Myles Straw. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 3rd.2–1
1Jesús Sánchez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Isaac Collins. Brett Bateman scores.1–1
1Salvador Perez grounds into a double play, shortstop Andrés Giménez to second baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd. Vinnie Pasquantino out at 2nd. Salvador Perez out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
