Royals at Blue Jays
Last play · Isaac Collins strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
KC 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 3 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+146 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Jesús Sánchez scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores. (inning 4) — +30% Blue Jays
4Nathan Lukes homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Jesús Sánchez scores. Kazuma Okamoto scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
