Royals at Blue Jays
Last play · Myles Straw flies out to right fielder Jac Caglianone.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
KC 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 0 TOR
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Josh Rojas scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 2) — -15% Royals
9Jac Caglianone homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Tyler Tolbert scores.13–2
8Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jac Caglianone scores.11–2
6George Springer homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Alejandro Kirk scores.10–2
6Vinnie Pasquantino homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Jac Caglianone scores.10–0
6Jac Caglianone singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.8–0
6Bobby Witt Jr. doubles (27) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daz Cameron. Kyle Isbel scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd.6–0
6Kyle Isbel doubles (9) on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Josh Rojas scores.5–0
2Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Josh Rojas scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
