Mariners at Blue Jays
Last play · J.P. Crawford flies out to center fielder Brett Bateman.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SEA 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 2 TOR
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · George Springer walks. Myles Straw scores. Brett Bateman scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd. Wild pitch by pitcher Eduard Bazardo. (inning 5) — +28% Blue Jays
6Alejandro Kirk singles on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Myles Straw scores. Brett Bateman to 3rd.3–4
6Brett Bateman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Charles McAdoo scores. Myles Straw to 2nd.3–3
5George Springer walks. Myles Straw scores. Brett Bateman scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd. Wild pitch by pitcher Eduard Bazardo.3–2
4Taylor Ward singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daz Cameron. Josh Naylor scores. Cal Raleigh scores. Cole Young to 2nd.3–0
2Cal Raleigh homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
