Mariners at Blue Jays
SEA1–
TOR8Last play · J.P. Crawford flies out to left fielder Myles Straw.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SEA 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 5 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (21) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Brett Bateman scores. (inning 1) — +14% Blue Jays
7Kazuma Okamoto reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman J.P. Crawford. George Springer scores. Myles Straw to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman J.P. Crawford.1–8
7Myles Straw singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Nathan Lukes scores. George Springer to 3rd.1–7
6Kazuma Okamoto homers (27) on a fly ball to left field.1–6
5George Springer homers (14) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
5Nathan Lukes homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
1Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. George Springer scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.1–3
1Kazuma Okamoto out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Taylor Ward. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. George Springer to 3rd.1–2
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (21) on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Brett Bateman scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.