Mariners at Blue Jays
Last play · Julio Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Andrés Giménez to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SEA 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 3 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-129 / +121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alejandro Kirk homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Brett Bateman scores. (inning 1) — +17% Blue Jays
8Brett Bateman doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Myles Straw to 3rd.0–7
8Andrés Giménez singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 2nd.0–6
6Kazuma Okamoto homers (28) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
5Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Myles Straw scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd.0–3
1Alejandro Kirk homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Brett Bateman scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
