Giants at Nationals
SF10–
WSH5Last play · Brady House grounds into a double play, shortstop Willy Adames to second baseman Luis Arraez to first baseman Rafael Devers. Keibert Ruiz out at 2nd. Brady House out at 1st.
Win probability
Nationals0%
SF 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 8 – 3 WSH
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heliot Ramos homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Casey Schmitt scores. Jung Hoo Lee scores. (inning 2) — -33% Giants
9Heliot Ramos walks. Luis Arraez scores. Matt Chapman to 3rd. Jung Hoo Lee to 2nd.10–5
7James Wood homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.9–5
7Casey Schmitt homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.9–4
6José Tena singles on a ground ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. Daylen Lile scores.8–4
4Daylen Lile homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Joey Wiemer scores.8–3
4Matt Chapman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Willy Adames scores.8–1
4Drew Gilbert homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.7–1
3Brady House grounds into a force out, second baseman Luis Arraez to shortstop Willy Adames. José Tena scores. Keibert Ruiz out at 2nd. Brady House to 1st. Brady House advances to 1st, on a missed catch error by first baseman Rafael Devers, assist to shortstop Willy Adames.6–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.