Giants at Nationals
Last play · Daylen Lile called out on strikes.
Win probability
Nationals0%
SF 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 3 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Chapman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 12) — -44% Giants
12Matt Chapman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Luis Arraez scores.7–6
9Giants challenged (timing play), call on the field was upheld: Brady House singles on a fly ball to center fielder Drew Gilbert. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Drew Gilbert to third baseman Matt Chapman.6–6
7Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Willy Adames scores.6–5
6Heliot Ramos homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Jung Hoo Lee scores.5–5
3Casey Schmitt doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Luis Arraez scores. Matt Chapman scores. Fielding error by left fielder Daylen Lile.3–5
2José Tena singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. to 2nd.1–5
2Luis García Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Jorbit Vivas scores. Drew Millas scores. James Wood to 3rd.1–4
2James Wood hit by pitch. Nasim Nuñez scores. Jorbit Vivas to 3rd. Drew Millas to 2nd.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
