Giants at Nationals
Last play · Willy Adames grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Curtis Mead.
Win probability
Nationals100%
SF 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Curtis Mead homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Keibert Ruiz scores. (inning 5) — +18% Nationals
5Curtis Mead homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Keibert Ruiz scores.0–3
5Keibert Ruiz doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Nasim Nuñez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
