Braves at Nationals
Last play · José Tena flies out to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. (inning 6) — -31% Braves
9Matt Olson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Eli White to 3rd.9–4
9Eli White singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Luis García Jr. Jorge Mateo scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 2nd.8–4
6Jacob Young reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Austin Riley. CJ Abrams scores. Jacob Young to 2nd.7–4
6Dominic Smith grounds into a force out, pitcher Brad Lord to shortstop CJ Abrams. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II out at 2nd. Dominic Smith to 1st.7–3
6Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Austin Riley scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.6–3
6Ozzie Albies singles on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Drake Baldwin scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.5–3
6Drake Baldwin doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.4–3
4Daylen Lile homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
