Braves at Nationals
Last play · Jacob Young flies out to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 8 – 4 WSH
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-168 / +139
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +31% Nationals
6James Wood homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field.8–6
6Joey Wiemer homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.8–5
4Matt Olson homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Jonah Heim scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.8–4
3Michael Harris II homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.5–4
2Ronald Acuña Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Mike Yastrzemski scores.4–4
2Michael Harris II homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Ozzie Albies scores.3–4
1Jorbit Vivas doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Jacob Young scores.1–4
1Daylen Lile homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
