Braves at Nationals
ATL4–
WSH11Last play · Drake Baldwin strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
ATL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Brady House scores. James Wood to 2nd. (inning 5) — +10% Nationals
8Curtis Mead homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Nasim Nuñez scores. Brady House scores.4–11
8Austin Riley grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Luis García Jr. Drake Baldwin scores. Matt Olson to 2nd.4–8
7Jacob Young grounds out, second baseman Ozzie Albies to first baseman Matt Olson. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd.3–8
7Luis García Jr. doubles (4) on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Curtis Mead scores. Drew Millas scores. James Wood to 3rd.3–7
5Luis García Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Brady House scores. James Wood to 2nd.3–5
5Eli White homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.3–4
3Drake Baldwin homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.2–4
2James Wood homers (8) on a line drive to left center field.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.