Brewers at Nationals
Last play · Jorbit Vivas grounds out to first baseman Jake Bauers.
Win probability
Nationals0%
MIL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 1 WSH
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-137 / +114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lockridge singles on a ground ball to left fielder James Wood. Gary Sánchez scores. Jake Bauers scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd. (inning 1) — -16% Brewers
8Joey Ortiz grounds out, second baseman Curtis Mead to first baseman Luis García Jr. David Hamilton scores. Brandon Lockridge to 3rd. Sal Frelick to 2nd.4–1
4CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Curtis Mead scores.3–1
1Brandon Lockridge singles on a ground ball to left fielder James Wood. Gary Sánchez scores. Jake Bauers scores. Luis Rengifo to 2nd.3–0
1Luis Rengifo reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Brady House. William Contreras scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd. Jake Bauers to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
