Braves at Nationals
Last play · Jacob Young lines out sharply to left fielder Mauricio Dubón.
Win probability
Nationals0%
ATL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 2 WSH
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley scores. (inning 7) — -41% Braves
9Ozzie Albies homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.7–2
7Michael Harris II doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Ozzie Albies scores.6–2
7Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley scores.5–2
4CJ Abrams homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
4Michael Harris II singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Austin Riley scores.2–1
4Ozzie Albies out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Matt Olson scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.1–1
1James Wood homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
