Brewers at Nationals
Last play · Nationals challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Nationals challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: José Tena grounds into a double play, second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Jake Bauers. Daylen Lile out at 2nd. José Tena out at 1st.
Win probability
Nationals0%
MIL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 4 – 0 WSH
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-163 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · William Contreras pops out to catcher Drew Millas in foul territory. (inning 1) — -12% Brewers
8William Contreras singles on a ground ball to right fielder James Wood. Sal Frelick scores. Blake Perkins scores. David Hamilton to 3rd.6–1
7Brady House grounds out, third baseman Luis Rengifo to first baseman Jake Bauers. CJ Abrams scores.4–1
5Tyler Black doubles (4) on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. William Contreras scores. Luis Rengifo to 3rd.4–0
5Luis Rengifo grounds into a force out, first baseman Curtis Mead to shortstop CJ Abrams. Brice Turang scores. William Contreras to 3rd. Jake Bauers out at 2nd. Luis Rengifo to 1st.3–0
3William Contreras singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. David Hamilton scores. Brice Turang to 2nd.2–0
1William Contreras pops out to catcher Drew Millas in foul territory.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
