Brewers at Nationals
Last play · Brandon Lockridge strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 2 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-149 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Brandon Lockridge scores. (inning 5) — -16% Brewers
9Garrett Mitchell grounds out, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to first baseman Curtis Mead. Blake Perkins scores. Greg Jones to 2nd.2–3
7Nasim Nuñez singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Lockridge. CJ Abrams scores.1–3
5José Tena triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Nasim Nuñez scores.1–2
5Nasim Nuñez singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. CJ Abrams scores.1–1
5Joey Ortiz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Brandon Lockridge scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
