Twins at Nationals
MIN5–
WSH7Last play · James Outman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIN 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Keibert Ruiz homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — +31% Nationals
7Curtis Mead singles on a line drive to right fielder James Outman. James Wood scores. Daylen Lile to 2nd.5–7
7Keibert Ruiz homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.5–6
7Josh Bell doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Ryan Jeffers scores.5–5
6Ryan Jeffers homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.4–5
5Curtis Mead flies into a force out, right fielder Matt Wallner to shortstop Brooks Lee. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood to 3rd. Daylen Lile out at 2nd. Curtis Mead to 1st.3–5
5Keibert Ruiz doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. José Tena scores. Jacob Young scores.3–4
5Tristan Gray singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nasim Nuñez. Brooks Lee scores. Tristan Gray to 2nd.3–2
3Nasim Nuñez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Keibert Ruiz scores.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.