Twins at Nationals
Last play · Josh Bell grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Curtis Mead.
Win probability
Nationals100%
MIN 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drew Millas homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Jacob Young scores. (inning 5) — +30% Nationals
8José Tena homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.2–15
8CJ Abrams hits a grand slam (9) to right center field. James Wood scores. Daylen Lile scores. Curtis Mead scores.2–14
8James Wood singles on a ground ball to right fielder Matt Wallner. Jacob Young scores. Drew Millas scores.2–10
7Brady House homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Daylen Lile scores.2–8
6Nasim Nuñez triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. José Tena scores.2–6
6José Tena doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Brady House scores.2–5
6Brady House doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. CJ Abrams scores.2–4
5Drew Millas homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Jacob Young scores.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
