Orioles at Nationals
Last play · Adley Rutschman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
BAL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 1 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Curtis Mead scores. (inning 6) — +17% Nationals
9Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Tyler O'Neill scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.2–3
9Jeremiah Jackson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Samuel Basallo scores.1–3
6Daylen Lile homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Curtis Mead scores.0–3
4Brady House out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. CJ Abrams scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
