Orioles at Nationals
Last play · CJ Abrams pops out to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Nationals0%
BAL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 6 – 2 WSH
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Coby Mayo homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Samuel Basallo scores. (inning 2) — -18% Orioles
9Gunnar Henderson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Joey Wiemer. Jeremiah Jackson scores.7–3
7CJ Abrams singles on a ground ball to third baseman Coby Mayo, deflected by first baseman Pete Alonso. James Wood scores. Brady House to 2nd.6–3
4Keibert Ruiz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Daylen Lile scores.6–2
4Colton Cowser homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Leody Taveras scores.6–1
3Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Taylor Ward scores.4–1
2Jacob Young homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
2Coby Mayo homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Samuel Basallo scores.3–0
1Gunnar Henderson homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
