Orioles at Nationals
Last play · Taylor Ward flies out to left fielder Daylen Lile.
Win probability
Nationals100%
BAL 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 4 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Keibert Ruiz homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. CJ Abrams scores. Nasim Nuñez scores. (inning 2) — +26% Nationals
8Brady House homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Curtis Mead scores.3–13
7Jacob Young homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Keibert Ruiz scores. Joey Wiemer scores.3–11
7Keibert Ruiz singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. CJ Abrams scores. Daylen Lile scores. Nasim Nuñez to 2nd.3–8
7Orioles challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Daylen Lile reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Brady House scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd.3–6
7Brady House doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. James Wood scores.3–5
7Taylor Ward singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Leody Taveras scores. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.3–4
7Tyler O'Neill homers (2) on a line drive to left field.2–4
7Samuel Basallo homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
