Mets at Nationals
NYM6–
WSH9Last play · Carson Benge strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
NYM 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 5 – 9 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-134 / +111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Wood hits an inside-the-park grand slam (13) on a fly ball to left-center field. Jorbit Vivas scores. Drew Millas scores. Nasim Nuñez scores. (inning 2) — +37% Nationals
7Juan Soto homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.6–9
4CJ Abrams reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Bo Bichette. James Wood scores. José Tena scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd. Missed catch error by catcher Luis Torrens, assist to shortstop Bo Bichette.5–9
3Jorbit Vivas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Nick Morabito in foul territory. Daylen Lile scores.5–7
3Dylan Crews grounds out, shortstop Bo Bichette to first baseman Mark Vientos. Daylen Lile to 3rd.5–6
3José Tena homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.5–5
2James Wood hits an inside-the-park grand slam (13) on a fly ball to left-center field. Jorbit Vivas scores. Drew Millas scores. Nasim Nuñez scores.5–4
2Bo Bichette homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Carson Benge scores.5–0
1Marcus Semien out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Daylen Lile. Juan Soto scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.