Mets at Nationals
NYM4–
WSH8Last play · Marcus Semien lines out sharply to center fielder Jacob Young.
Win probability
Nationals100%
NYM 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 4 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Curtis Mead scores. Andrés Chaparro scores. (inning 1) — +24% Nationals
8Jacob Young homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Daylen Lile scores.4–8
8Juan Soto homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Bo Bichette scores.4–6
6Nasim Nuñez out on a sacrifice bunt to first baseman Mark Vientos. Dylan Crews scores. Jacob Young to 3rd.2–6
6Daylen Lile out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Juan Soto. CJ Abrams scores.2–5
3Juan Soto homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
2Keibert Ruiz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Juan Soto. Nasim Nuñez scores.1–4
2Brett Baty singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Mark Vientos scores.1–3
1CJ Abrams homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Curtis Mead scores. Andrés Chaparro scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.