Mets at Nationals
Last play · Keibert Ruiz grounds out, second baseman Marcus Semien to first baseman Mark Vientos.
Win probability
Nationals0%
NYM 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 1 WSH
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. MJ Melendez scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge to 2nd. (inning 3) — -26% Mets
5Andrés Chaparro grounds out, third baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Mark Vientos. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood to 3rd.2–1
3Bo Bichette singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young. MJ Melendez scores. Luis Torrens scores. Carson Benge to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
