Last play · Miguel Andujar flies out to right fielder Dylan Crews.
Win probability
Nationals100%
SD 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
final
SD 3 – 1 WSH
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference
-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Padres challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Drew Millas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. José Tena scores. Jorbit Vivas to 3rd. Dylan Crews to 2nd. Missed catch error by shortstop Xander Bogaerts, assist to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. (inning 7) — +23% Nationals
8Curtis Mead doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Dylan Crews scores. Drew Millas scores.4–9
8Manny Machado doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Miguel Andujar scores.4–7
7Daylen Lile grounds into a force out, second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Curtis Mead scores. Luis García Jr. out at 2nd. Daylen Lile to 1st.3–7
7Luis García Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Dylan Crews scores. Drew Millas scores. Curtis Mead to 3rd.3–6
7Curtis Mead walks. Jorbit Vivas scores. Dylan Crews to 3rd. Drew Millas to 2nd.3–4
7Padres challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Drew Millas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr. José Tena scores. Jorbit Vivas to 3rd. Dylan Crews to 2nd. Missed catch error by shortstop Xander Bogaerts, assist to second baseman Fernando Tatis Jr.3–3
7Dylan Crews hit by pitch. CJ Abrams scores. José Tena to 3rd. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.3–2
5Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.