Padres at Nationals
Last play · Ty France called out on strikes and Jackson Merrill caught stealing 2nd, catcher Keibert Ruiz to second baseman Nasim Nuñez to catcher Keibert Ruiz.
Win probability
Nationals100%
SD 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (5) on a line drive to center field. (inning 4) — +19% Nationals
7Andrés Chaparro doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Nick Castellanos. Nasim Nuñez scores. James Wood to 3rd.2–4
7Nick Castellanos out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Jackson Merrill scores. Ty France to 3rd.2–3
7Ty France doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.1–3
5James Wood homers (16) on a line drive to center field. Keibert Ruiz scores.0–3
4Luis García Jr. homers (5) on a line drive to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
