Marlins at Nationals
Last play · Daylen Lile pops out to shortstop Otto Lopez.
Win probability
Nationals0%
MIA 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 1 WSH
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joe Mack singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Liam Hicks scores. Jakob Marsee scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd. (inning 8) — -39% Marlins
9Kyle Stowers triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Otto Lopez scores.4–1
8Joe Mack singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Liam Hicks scores. Jakob Marsee scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd.3–1
3Dylan Crews reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Otto Lopez. Keibert Ruiz scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd. James Wood to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Otto Lopez.1–1
2Esteury Ruiz homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
