Mariners at Nationals
Last play · Luis García Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
SEA 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 8 – 1 WSH
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dominic Canzone triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley scores. (inning 2) — -24% Mariners
9Josh Naylor homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.10–2
8Dylan Crews homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.9–2
8Dominic Canzone homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.9–1
5Luke Raley singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Julio Rodríguez scores. Victor Robles scores.8–1
4James Wood homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.5–1
2Colt Emerson homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Jhonny Pereda scores.5–0
2Miles Mastrobuoni out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Crews. Dominic Canzone scores.3–0
2Dominic Canzone triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
