Mariners at Nationals
Last play · Julio Rodríguez grounds out, third baseman Curtis Mead to first baseman Andrés Chaparro.
Win probability
Nationals100%
SEA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. James Wood scores. (inning 5) — +25% Nationals
7José Tena singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Dylan Crews scores. José Tena to 2nd.3–8
7CJ Abrams singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Luke Raley. Andrés Chaparro scores. Curtis Mead to 2nd.3–6
5Luis García Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. James Wood scores.3–5
5Colt Emerson homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Mitch Garver scores.3–3
5Mitch Garver singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Miles Mastrobuoni scores.1–3
1Dylan Crews singles on a line drive to left fielder Luke Raley. Daylen Lile scores.0–3
1Daylen Lile triples (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Victor Robles. CJ Abrams scores.0–2
1CJ Abrams singles on a line drive to left fielder Luke Raley. Luis García Jr. scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
