Royals at Nationals
Last play · Lane Thomas grounds out, third baseman Curtis Mead to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Nationals100%
KC 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 3 – 7 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Jac Caglianone scores. (inning 5) — -31% Royals
5Dylan Crews homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. scores.3–7
5Luis García Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Keibert Ruiz scores. Nasim Nuñez scores. James Wood to 2nd.3–4
5Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Jac Caglianone scores.3–2
4Carter Jensen singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nasim Nuñez. Starling Marte scores. Nick Loftin to 3rd.1–2
3Curtis Mead singles on a line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas, deflected by second baseman Nick Loftin. Nasim Nuñez scores. James Wood scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
