Royals at Nationals
Last play · Isaac Collins strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals100%
KC 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 3 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Crews. Lane Thomas scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 7) — -36% Royals
9Lane Thomas homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.4–6
7Curtis Mead homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Nasim Nuñez scores. Andrés Chaparro scores.3–6
7Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Crews. Lane Thomas scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.3–3
5James Wood singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kameron Misner. Nasim Nuñez scores.1–3
5Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Tyler Tolbert scores. Lane Thomas to 3rd.1–2
3James Wood out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kameron Misner. Nasim Nuñez scores.0–2
3Nasim Nuñez triples (2) on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Drew Millas scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
