Mariners at Nationals
Last play · Luke Raley called out on strikes.
Win probability
Nationals100%
SEA 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 6 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-132 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Wood homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 1) — +17% Nationals
8Dylan Crews grounds out, shortstop Colt Emerson to first baseman Patrick Wisdom. James Wood scores.1–10
8James Wood doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Robles. Jacob Young scores.1–9
8Jacob Young doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Luke Raley. Jorbit Vivas scores.1–8
7Keibert Ruiz homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.1–7
4Jorbit Vivas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Josh Naylor. Nasim Nuñez scores.1–6
4Nasim Nuñez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Robles. Keibert Ruiz scores. Daylen Lile scores.1–5
4Daylen Lile doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. CJ Abrams scores. Keibert Ruiz to 3rd.1–3
4Keibert Ruiz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Luke Raley. Dylan Crews scores. CJ Abrams to 2nd.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
