Royals at Nationals
KC6–
WSH2Last play · Daylen Lile flies out to right fielder John Rave.
Win probability
Nationals0%
KC 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 4 – 0 WSH
Royals led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — -10% Royals
6Nationals challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Dylan Crews singles on a line drive to right fielder John Rave. CJ Abrams scores. Dylan Crews out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder John Rave to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.6–2
6CJ Abrams doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Curtis Mead scores.6–1
6Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Isaac Collins scores. Carter Jensen to 3rd.6–0
6Isaac Collins singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Luis García Jr. John Rave scores.5–0
3Michael Massey homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.4–0
3Lane Thomas homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
2John Rave homers (1) on a line drive to center field.2–0
1Carter Jensen homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.