Phillies at Nationals
Last play · Luis García Jr. called out on strikes.
Win probability
Nationals0%
PHI 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 2 WSH
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Derek Hill homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Garrett Stubbs scores. (inning 9) — -71% Phillies
9Derek Hill homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Garrett Stubbs scores.5–4
6Curtis Mead homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Dylan Crews scores.3–4
4Gabriel Rincones Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Bryson Stott scores.3–2
4J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dylan Crews. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.2–2
4Bryson Stott doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to right fielder James Wood. Brandon Marsh scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.1–2
2Jorbit Vivas homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.0–2
1Luis García Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
