Phillies at Nationals
PHI14–
WSH9Last play · Dylan Crews pops out to first baseman Bryce Harper in foul territory.
Win probability
Nationals0%
PHI 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-192 / +157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorbit Vivas homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Luis García Jr. scores. Dylan Crews scores. (inning 8) — +66% Nationals
9Luis García Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.14–9
9Trea Turner singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Edmundo Sosa scores. Justin Crawford to 3rd.14–8
9Edmundo Sosa doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. J.T. Realmuto scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. scores.13–8
9Bryson Stott homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Bryce Harper scores. Derek Hill scores.11–8
9Brandon Marsh homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Trea Turner scores.8–8
8Jorbit Vivas homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Luis García Jr. scores. Dylan Crews scores.6–8
8J.T. Realmuto doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Brandon Marsh scores. Garrett Stubbs scores. Bryson Stott scores.6–5
7Edmundo Sosa grounds into a force out, third baseman Curtis Mead to second baseman Jorbit Vivas. Bryson Stott scores. Gabriel Rincones Jr. out at 2nd. Edmundo Sosa to 1st.3–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.