Phillies at Nationals
Last play · Curtis Mead lines out to center fielder Justin Crawford.
Win probability
Nationals0%
PHI 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-179 / +148
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Garrett Stubbs scores. (inning 9) — -41% Phillies
9Derek Hill homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. J.T. Realmuto scores.10–5
9J.T. Realmuto doubles (8) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Dylan Crews. Brandon Marsh scores.8–5
9Bryce Harper homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field. Garrett Stubbs scores.7–5
7Alec Bohm grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Jorbit Vivas. Kyle Schwarber scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. Brandon Marsh out at 2nd. Alec Bohm to 1st.5–5
7Brandon Marsh walks. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber to 3rd. Bryce Harper to 2nd.4–5
7Bryce Harper walks. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner to 3rd. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.3–5
6Brandon Marsh homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryce Harper scores.2–5
3Jacob Young singles on a ground ball to center fielder Justin Crawford, deflected by second baseman Bryson Stott. Dylan Crews scores.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
