Pirates at Nationals
Last play · Drew Millas grounds out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Tyler Callihan.
Win probability
Nationals0%
PIT 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 5 – 1 WSH
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-162 / +134
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Jake Mangum scores. Tyler Callihan scores. Henry Davis to 2nd. (inning 2) — -18% Pirates
8Henry Davis walks. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. Tyler Callihan to 2nd.7–1
8Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.6–1
2Esmerlyn Valdez singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Henry Davis scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd.5–1
2Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Jake Mangum scores. Tyler Callihan scores. Henry Davis to 2nd.4–1
2Henry Davis singles on a ground ball to third baseman Curtis Mead. Nick Gonzales scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. Tyler Callihan to 2nd.2–1
1James Wood homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Ryan O'Hearn strikes out on a foul tip.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
