Pirates at Nationals
Last play · CJ Abrams flies out sharply to right fielder Jared Triolo.
Win probability
Nationals0%
PIT 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 4 WSH
Tied through 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Konnor Griffin singles on a ground ball to right fielder James Wood. Henry Davis scores. Jared Triolo scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. (inning 8) — -39% Pirates
9Henry Davis singles on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales scores.11–5
8Dylan Crews homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.9–5
8Brandon Lowe homers (21) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Mangum scores. Konnor Griffin scores.9–4
8Konnor Griffin singles on a ground ball to right fielder James Wood. Henry Davis scores. Jared Triolo scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.6–4
5CJ Abrams out on a sacrifice fly to shortstop Konnor Griffin. James Wood scores.4–4
4Jorbit Vivas grounds out to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. Dylan Crews scores.4–3
3Luis García Jr. homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Keibert Ruiz scores.4–2
3Bryan Reynolds homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
