Pirates at Nationals
PIT5–
WSH9Last play · Jake Mangum pops out to shortstop CJ Abrams.
Win probability
Nationals100%
PIT 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Tena homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. James Wood scores. (inning 3) — +17% Nationals
9Nick Gonzales doubles (12) on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.5–9
9Esmerlyn Valdez doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder James Wood. Bryan Reynolds scores.4–9
9Bryan Reynolds doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Brandon Lowe scores.3–9
9Brandon Lowe doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Jared Triolo scores.2–9
8Daylen Lile homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Dylan Crews scores.1–9
7Luis García Jr. homers (18) on a line drive to right field. Nasim Nuñez scores.1–7
3Daylen Lile doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. CJ Abrams scores.1–5
3José Tena homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. James Wood scores.1–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.