Astros at Nationals
Last play · Dylan Crews strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
HOU 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 2 WSH
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Allen singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Christian Walker scores. Zach Dezenzo scores. Brice Matthews to 2nd. (inning 4) — -26% Astros
9José Tena homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.6–3
8Jose Altuve homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.6–2
6Christian Vázquez singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Zach Dezenzo scores. Nick Allen to 3rd.5–2
4Christian Vázquez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Brice Matthews scores.4–2
4Nick Allen singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Christian Walker scores. Zach Dezenzo scores. Brice Matthews to 2nd.3–2
3CJ Abrams out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brice Matthews. James Wood scores.1–2
2Nick Allen out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Wood. Christian Walker scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.1–1
1James Wood homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
