Astros at Nationals
HOU11–
WSH12Last play · Christian Walker lines out to center fielder Jacob Young.
Win probability
Nationals100%
HOU 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 6 – 12 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Abrams homers (19) on a line drive to right field. Luis García Jr. scores. Curtis Mead scores. (inning 3) — +38% Nationals
8Brice Matthews homers (7) on a line drive to left field. Yainer Diaz scores. Braden Shewmake scores.11–12
8Braden Shewmake doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores. Yainer Diaz to 3rd.8–12
6Braden Shewmake grounds into a double play, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Luis García Jr. Cam Smith scores. Yainer Diaz out at 2nd. Braden Shewmake out at 1st.7–12
5James Wood hits a grand slam (24) to center field. Dylan Crews scores. Jacob Young scores. Nasim Nuñez scores.6–12
5Drew Millas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. CJ Abrams scores.6–8
5Curtis Mead homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.6–7
3CJ Abrams homers (19) on a line drive to right field. Luis García Jr. scores. Curtis Mead scores.6–6
3Curtis Mead singles on a ground ball to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. James Wood scores. Luis García Jr. to 3rd.6–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.