Yankees at Nationals
Last play · Luis García Jr. grounds out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Nationals0%
NYY 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 2 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-199 / +163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trent Grisham homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. José Caballero scores. (inning 8) — -52% Yankees
8Paul Goldschmidt homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.4–2
8Trent Grisham homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. José Caballero scores.3–2
8Ryan McMahon homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
1Curtis Mead homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
1James Wood homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
