Astros at Nationals
Last play · Brice Matthews grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Nationals100%
HOU 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 8 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood scores. (inning 4) — +13% Nationals
8Nick Allen singles on a ground ball to shortstop CJ Abrams. Zach Dezenzo scores. Nick Allen to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop CJ Abrams.2–8
5Keibert Ruiz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brice Matthews. Dylan Crews scores.1–8
5José Tena grounds out to first baseman Christian Walker. Daylen Lile scores. Dylan Crews to 3rd. Jorbit Vivas to 2nd.1–7
5CJ Abrams homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
5Brice Matthews singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Yainer Diaz scores.1–5
4Luis García Jr. homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field. Keibert Ruiz scores. James Wood scores.0–5
3Daylen Lile doubles (21) on a line drive to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Luis García Jr. scores.0–2
3CJ Abrams out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. James Wood scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
