Yankees at Nationals
Last play · James Wood grounds out softly, pitcher David Bednar to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Nationals0%
NYY 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 1 WSH
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-158 / +131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Jasson Domínguez scores. (inning 9) — -71% Yankees
9Austin Wells homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
9Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Jasson Domínguez scores.4–3
7James Wood homers (26) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
7Keibert Ruiz homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
4Jasson Domínguez homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
3Dylan Crews grounds into a double play, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. James Wood scores. Curtis Mead out at 2nd. Dylan Crews out at 1st.1–1
1Ben Rice homers (29) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
