Yankees at Nationals
Last play · Jorbit Vivas flies out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Nationals0%
NYY 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 1 WSH
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Max Schuemann scores. Trent Grisham scores. (inning 8) — -52% Yankees
9José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dylan Crews. Cody Bellinger scores.5–3
8Ben Rice triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Max Schuemann scores. Trent Grisham scores.4–3
7Keibert Ruiz reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Nasim Nuñez scores. Keibert Ruiz to 2nd.2–3
6Curtis Mead homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
5Austin Wells singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.2–1
5Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Cody Bellinger scores.1–1
1James Wood homers (28) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
