D-backs at Nationals
Last play · Keibert Ruiz grounds out, second baseman Ketel Marte to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
Nationals0%
AZ 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 2 WSH
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Crews homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. CJ Abrams scores. (inning 4) — +27% Nationals
7Gabriel Moreno out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder James Wood. Ketel Marte scores.3–2
4Dylan Crews homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. CJ Abrams scores.2–2
2Diamondbacks challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Diamondbacks challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Ketel Marte grounds into a force out, first baseman Luis García Jr. to shortstop CJ Abrams. Tyler Locklear scores. Tim Tawa out at 2nd. Ketel Marte to 1st.2–0
2Tim Tawa singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Luis García Jr. Max Kepler scores. Tyler Locklear to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
