D-backs at Nationals
Last play · Tyler Locklear grounds out, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Nationals100%
AZ 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 6 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Wood homers (29) on a fly ball to center field. Nasim Nuñez scores. (inning 5) — +29% Nationals
9Nolan Arenado grounds out, third baseman Brady House to first baseman Luis García Jr. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd. Ryan Waldschmidt to 2nd.7–10
9Ryan Waldschmidt singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Crews. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Ketel Marte to 2nd.6–10
8James Wood homers (30) on a fly ball to left center field.5–10
8Tyler Locklear out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jacob Young. Ryan Waldschmidt scores.5–9
7Luis García Jr. singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Brandyn Garcia. Jacob Young scores. Luis García Jr. to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Brandyn Garcia.4–9
7Jacob Young doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder Max Kepler. Brady House scores.4–8
7Brady House doubles (9) on a line drive to center fielder Tim Tawa. Dylan Crews scores.4–7
5CJ Abrams homers (27) on a fly ball to center field. Daylen Lile scores.4–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
