Blue Jays at Nationals
Last play · Luis García Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
TOR 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 2 WSH
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrés Chaparro homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — +15% Nationals
5Andrés Chaparro homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
4Myles Straw singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Luis Urías to 3rd.3–1
3Ernie Clement doubles (26) on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Myles Straw scores.2–1
3Luis Urías homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
2Luis García Jr. doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Nasim Nuñez scores. James Wood to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
