D-backs at Nationals
Last play · Nolan Arenado grounds out, third baseman Curtis Mead to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Nationals100%
AZ 0%WSH 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 5 WSH
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Nationals favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gabriel Moreno singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Jacob Young to catcher Keibert Ruiz to second baseman Nasim Nuñez. (inning 3) — -26% D-backs
7James McCann singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Tim Tawa scores.3–5
5CJ Abrams homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.2–5
3Daylen Lile triples (5) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Dylan Crews scores. Jacob Young scores.2–4
3CJ Abrams doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tim Tawa. Curtis Mead scores. Andrés Chaparro scores.2–2
3Gabriel Moreno singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Ryan Waldschmidt scores. Corbin Carroll scores. Gabriel Moreno out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Jacob Young to catcher Keibert Ruiz to second baseman Nasim Nuñez.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
